:Pick a Teddy
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Approach: One to one  Level: Year 4 and year 8
Focus:     Probability
Resources: Bag of 12 teddies, prompt card 
348KB
Questions / instructions:
There are 12 teddies in this bag. Six are green, 4 are blue and 2 are yellow.

Give bag of teddies and prompt card to student.

Shake the bag so the teddies are mixed up.
   
% responses
2005 ('01)
Y4
Y8
1. If I were to close my eyes and pick a teddy out of this bag, what colour will I most likely get?
green
81 (79)
97 (94)
2. Why do you say that?
most likely to get most common colour
70 (70)
96 (93)
3. What is the chance of taking out a yellow teddy?
2 out of 12 or two twelfths or one sixth or about 16%
3 (2)
44 (32)
less/least/little chance than green and blue
37 (43)
19 (27)
4. What is the chance of taking out a green teddy?
6 out of 12 or six twelfths or one half or one out of 2 or 50%
4 (2)
52 (43)
greatest/great chance
42 (49)
13 (23)
 
Total score:
6
2 (1)
41 (28)
 
4–5
31 (33)
22 (34)
2–3
40 (40)
34 (34)
0–1
27 (26)
3 (4)

Commentary:
Students in year 4 and year 8 showed a basic understanding of the relationship between frequency and probability. Explaining that reasoning and turning it into a precise probability has begun to develop in some of the year 8 students. Year 8 students were more likely to get all questions correct in 2005 than in 2001.
 
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