The table below indicates the nature of the comments on each of the trend tasks in the 2001 report.

TREND TASK	COMMENT
Number
Subtraction Facts	For both year 4 and year 8 there was a small improvement.
Division Facts	A small improvement in high scores.
Addition examples	At both year levels the 2001 students performed very similarly to the 1997 students.
Multiplication Examples	Small improvement for both years.
Calculator Ordering	Results very similar.
Pizza Pieces	Year 4 a little better, no consistent pattern for year 8.
Girls and Boys	2001 students had a small but consistent advantage in parts 1 to 6 and a larger advantage in parts 7 and 8.
Equivalents	On average, 4% more succeeded with each conversion than in 1997. Although this improvement was slight, it occurred for all 12 conversions.
Measurement
Apples	No comment.
Better Buy	Little change at either level.
Measures	Little change.
Bean Estimates	2001 year 4 students did a little better, but year 8 students did markedly worse.
Video Recorder	Overall performance of both year 4 and year 8 students was slightly lower in 2001.
Measurement Items B	No comment.
Measurement Items C	No comment.
Party Time	No comment.
What’s the time?	Very similar in 1997 and 2001.
Supermarket shopping	The 2001 students were a little less successful.
Two boxes	Only 30% calculated the volume correctly compared to 29% in 1997, but more students used the correct units in 2001 than in 1997.
Geometry
Hedgehog	Year 4 students did equally well or slightly better in 2001, but year 8 a little worse.
Cut Cube	Year 4 students performed very similarly but year 8 noticeably lower.
Flat shapes	Recording dimension better in 1997 otherwise similar.
Algebra and Statistics
Train Trucks	2001 year 4 a little more successful, year 8 results more mixed.
Algebra/Logic Items A	Only one tend item for year 4; 15% more successful in 2001. Very little change for year 8.
Algebra/Logic Items B	Year 4 substantially better, year 8 performed similarly.
Statistics Items A	Year 8 results almost identical. Not administered to year 4.
Statistics Items B	Results very similar.
Farmyard Race	2001 students performed a little better.
Photo Line-Up	2001 students performed similarly to the 1997 students.

Each chapter in the report contains a paragraph on the changes in performance in its content area. The summary comments are highlighted.

Number
There was evidence of modest improvement between 1997 and 2001, especially for year 4 students. Averaged across 59 trend task components attempted by year 4 students in both years, 5 percent more students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 51 of the 59 components. At year 8 level, with 106 trend task components included, 3 percent more students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 85 of the 106 components. (see Number 2001 - Introduction)

Measurement
There was little evidence of change between 1997 and 2001. Averaged across 41 trend task components attempted by year 4 students in both years, 2 percent more students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 25 of the 41 components. At year 8 level, with 45 trend task components included, 2 percent fewer students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 15 of the 45 components. (Measurement 2001 - Introduction)

Geometry
There was little evidence of change between 1997 and 2001 for year 4 students, but a small decline for year 8 students. Averaged across 13 trend components attempted by year 4 students in both years, 2 percent more succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 10 of the 13 components. At year 8 level, with 22 trend task components included, 5 percent fewer students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred in 3 of the 22 components. (Geometry 2001 - Introduction)

Algebra and Statistics
There was evidence of substantial improvement between 1997 and 2001 for year 4 students, but little change over the same period for year 8 students. Averaged across 15 trend task components attempted by year 4 students in both years, 9 percent more students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred in 14 of the 15 components. At year 8 level, with 28 trend task components included, 1 percent more students succeeded in 2001 than in 1997. Gains occurred on 16 of the 28 components. (Algebra and Statistics 2001 - Introduction)

In two of the trend tasks, Subtraction Facts and Division Facts, only summary data is given rather than data on individual components. For these tasks, the mean score, estimated from the table given, was allocated to each of the components. On each of the other tasks component scores were available.

The following table indicates those trend task components on which there was a change in achievement of at least 6%. The achievement objective and the performance expectation of each component is also given.

COMPONENT		CHANGE %		AO	PE
NUMBER		YEAR 4	YEAR 8
Addition Examples	(2)	-6		N2-8	RP
Multiplication Examples	(2)	+8		N3	RP
	(3)	+11		N3	RP
	(4)		+6	N3	RP
	(5)		+7	N3	RP
	(6)		+8	N3	RP
	(7)		+8	N3	RP
Girls and Boys	(4)	+7		N2-10	SP
	(6)	+7		N2-10	SP
	(7)	+12		N2-10	SP
	(8)	+15		N2-10	SP
Equivalents	(2ii)		+8	N4-5	RP
	(4ii)		+8	N4-4	RP

The table suggests a quite marked improvement in performance at both levels. The one component on which the year 4 achievement decreased was a column addition of five single digit numbers. This invites an algorithmic approach which would be discouraged in the current numeracy projects (Ministry of Education, 2003, page 9). All the items on which year 4 students showed improvement of this magnitude were at level 2 in the curriculum. Those for year 8 were at levels 3 and 4.

COMPONENT		CHANGE %		AO	PE
MEASUREMENT		YEAR 4	YEAR 8
Apples	(1)	+8	-6	N2-10	RP
	(4)		-13	N3-6	CP
Measures (4)			+6	M3-1	CP
	(5)	+6		M3-1	CP
	(6)	-7		M2-1	RP
Bean Estimate (1)			-10	M3-1	CP
	(2)	+7	-7	M3-1	CP
	(3)		-13	M3-1	CP
Lump Balance	(2)	+11		M3-2	C
	(4)		-7	M3-2	SP
Video Recorder	(1)	-12	-9	M4-5	K
Measurement Items B	(6)	+12		M3-1	CP
Measurement Items C	(3)	+6		N3-7	RP
	(9)	+8		M4-5	CP
	(11)	-12		M3-1	K
Party Time	(2)	+7		M2-2	RP
Supermarket Shopping	(1)		-8	N3-6	RP

The chapter summary for measurement stated that there was little evidence of change between 1997 and 2001. The data above would suggest an improvement at year 4 and a decrease in performance at year 8. The components on which year 4 students showed improvement came from levels 2, 3 and 4 of the curriculum, as did those on which year 8 students showed a decrease in performance.

COMPONENT		CHANGE %		AO	PE
GEOMETRY		YEAR 4	YEAR 8
Hedgehog	(1)	+7		G2-4	RP
	(3)	+7	-6	G2-4	RP
	(4)		-14	G2-4	RP
	(5)		-7	G3	RP
	(6)		-10	G3	RP
	(8)		-6	G3	RP
Cut Cube	(1)		-11	G3	SP
	(2)		-9	G3	SP
	(4)		-11	G3	SP
	(5)	-6	-13	G3	SP
Flat shapes	(1ii)		-6	M4-1	RP
	(2)		-7	G2-1	K
	(3v)		-16	M4-1	RP

The data suggests little change at year 4 but a fairly substantial decline at year 8. Again the decline at year 8 was in components from levels 2, 3 and 4 of the curriculum.

COMPONENT		CHANGE %		AO	PE
ALGEBRA AND STATISTICS		YEAR 4	YEAR 8
Train Trucks	(3)		+7	A2-1	CP
	(4)		+8	A2-1	CP
	(7)	+12		S2-4	SP
	(8)		+10	S3-6	CP
	(13)	+8		S3-6	SP
Algebra/Logic Items A	(2)	+15		A2-3	K
Algebra/Logic Items B	(14)	+14		A4-4	CP
	(17)	+15		A3-5	CP
	(18)	+14		A2-3	K
	(20)	+13		A2-3	K
Farmyard Race
- strategy good/vg	+9			MP	SP
- cooperation good	+8			MP	C
Photo Line-Up
- cooperation good			-7	MP	C

The last three components relate to the Mathematical Processes strand of the curriculum and cannot be linked to a particular level.

The table confirms the chapter summary of a substantial improvement at year 4 and little change at year 8.

The table below indicates the number of trend task components in each chapter of the NEMP report on which there was a change in performance of at least 6 percent.

		YEAR 4			YEAR 8
		+	-		+	-
Number		6	1		6	0
Measurement		8	3		1	8
Geometry		2	1		0	12
Algebra/Statistics		9	0		3	1
TOTAL		25	5		10	21

The gains at year 4 were spread over each of the content areas. The picture at year 8 is very different with the gains concentrated in number and algebra/statistics and the losses in measurement and geometry.

		YEAR 4			YEAR 8
		+	-		+	-
Level 2		12	2		2	4
Level 3		9	2		6	13
Level 4		2	1		2	3
Math Pr		2	0		0	1
TOTAL		25	5		10	21

There does not seem to be a discernable pattern in the levels of the components on which there were the greatest changes in achievement.

The table below gives the number of trend task components on which there was a change in performance of at least 6 percent and which required the indicated performance expectation.

		YEAR 4			YEAR 8
		+	-		+	-
Knowing		3	2		0	2
Routine procedures		7	2		6	9
Complex procedures		6	0		4	4
Solving problems		7	1		0	5
Justifying and proving		0	0		0	0
Communicating		2	0		0	1
TOTAL		25	5		10	21

For year 4 students, the number of gains was greater than the number of losses for each of the performance expectations. At year 8 there were no performance expectations for which the number of gains was greater than the number of losses.

Based on an examination of those trend task components for which there was the greatest change in achievement between 1997 and 2001, the following conclusions are suggested:

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